Can the trade wars lead to a recession?

The S&P 500 nosedived almost 6% on Friday, to 5,074.08, its biggest drop in the post-Covid era. This is far worse than how the markets fared in Trump’s first trade wars in 2018. We are seeing pandemic-level selling right now.

The fear gauge (VIX) surging to a level of 45.6, which we have not seen since the pandemic, is evidence that we're not at the bottom yet. So now the question is, will stocks fall 30% like they did when Covid hit?