the daily moo

Why the fortunes of big Aussie miners are splitting right now

A surge in the leading US technology stocks lifted the market there, but lagging commodity prices are weighing on the Australian sharemarket today. It proves the point that when it comes to the Australian miners, it really pays to be specific and get to know the strength of demand for the metals they're bringing to market. It will determine if their big gains this year will continue.
Watchlist: BHP, Accenture, Intel
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US central bank shocks markets, but the big hit is yet to come

The US sharemarket slid broadly overnight as investors retreated, spooked by clear indication the central bank is leaning toward rate increases – an about turn from previous rate cuts. If it follows through, which commentators expect, we can expect a strong effect on the sharemarket, with secure, defensive stocks in favou
Watchlist: Broadcom, Moderna, Karoon Energy
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Sharemarket gains limited as world's biggest oil crisis still plays out

Semiconductor stocks dove significantly overnight, spooked by an outlook from Broadcom, forcing the Nasdaq-100 index down by nearly 2%. It reveals investors' lack of confidence in the huge rally in AI stocks amid a still messy geopolitical scene. Even if a US-Iran deal is signed this Friday the after shocks of the oil supply crisis will continue to impact investors for months.
Watchlist: The Mosaic, Intel, IperionX
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Heedless investors fuel ceasefire stock rally, ignoring energy crisis

A big rally in the US sharemarket, followed even stronger rallies in some Asia-Pacific region markets yesterday. Technology stocks recorded astounding gains as investors fully resumed their focus on artificial intelligence. But global energy infrastructure remains severely damaged, limiting how far the oil price can drop, and that will keep inflation high.
Watchlist: United Airlines, SpaceX, LendLease
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Intense US market volatility shows just how fragile the market really is

A powerful rally in the US sharemarket overnight is channelling into gains for the Australian market this morning. But the US gains, spearheaded by repeated double-digit leaps in trillion-dollar technology stocks, reveals just how febrile, uncertain and touchy the US market really is right now.
Watchlist: SanDisk, Tema Space Innovators ETF, Alcoa
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US energy prices jumped 24%, and the real damage hasn't even started

US shares dived overnight as Middle East military activity resumed and inflation spiked to a three-year high. Rising prices are mostly driven by rapidly increasing energy costs – a side effect of the US-Iran war. This huge increase is only just beginning to bite into the US sharemarket and consumers. And it looks set to have a devastating effect ahead.
Watchlist: Oracle, Adobe, Wesfarmers
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Crypto is crashing as investors rotate into artificial intelligence

Technology stocks and metal prices dipped overnight, as investors pause amid renewed Middle East hostilities. But few sectors are falling as hard and fast as cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin losing half its value since its high late last year. Investors are desperate to pile into AI, and crypto is a casualty as they liquidate their holdings.
Watchlist: Strategy, Cracker Barrel, Deep Yellow
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Gold falls below critical level as signs point to steeper drop

While the US technology sector rebounded over night, lifting the overall market, the price of gold did not. It is now well below US$4400 an ounce – a critical support level – with signs indicating further decline ahead is likely. In unison, we've seen significant drops in gold stocks across North America and the Asia-Pacific region.
Watchlist: Chow Tai Fook, Planet Labs, Megaport
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Powerhouse US earnings look unstoppable, but the foundations are fragile

Markets are pulling back from escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, as the price of oil rises. But they usually don't fall far, with the euphoric, persistent US rally based on the enormous strength of companies' earnings growth, as revealed in the past two monthS. But in a market 'priced to perfection' how much growth is left?
Watchlist: CrowdStrike, Victoria's Secret, Paladin Energy
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Soon you can trade SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI. But should you?

Technology stocks (not software) again boosted the US market higher, with Marvell and Hewlett Packard recording astounding gains. But they may pale compared with the three juggernauts about to list. So are SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI really worth you money? Their valuations are very high, and they're not even profitable yet.
Watchlist: Destiny Tech 100, Broadcom, Marvell
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Why the Australian sharemarket is falling, and how to invest anyway

The US sharemarket continues to rally higher, and Asian markets outperform, led by the powerful artificial intelligence sector. But not Australia, which is decoupling from the global scene as it heads south. Higher rates and a weakening economy are weighing on local shares and will continue to. So how do you invest in a falling market?
Watchlist: Pro Medicus, Palo Alto Networks, Blackberry
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Old-school tech stocks are now winning the AI race

The US market surged to highs again last week as technology stocks, those with decades of history, experienced a powerful surge. To name just two, Lenovo and Dell both jumped more than 60% last week alone. It's all about artificial intelligence, with these businesses finding essential roles in the boom. All the while, the unresolved Middle East standoff is being ignored.
Watchlist: Hewlett Packard, Virgin Galactic, Siteminder
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Traders brace for chaos as US stagflationary forces intensify

US sharemarkets rallied to highs, still believing an end to the US-Iran conflict is nigh. And that was supported by staggering gains in companies reporting results, such as Snowflake. But the US economy is telling a different story, as growth slows sharply and inflation refuses to drop, stagflationary forces are intensifying and will bring volatility.
Watchlist: Snowflake, Dell, Genesis Minerals
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HALO investing: why smart money is rotating into this anti-AI strategy

As markets hold steady, awaiting news from the Middle East, there's increasing worry about the rampant rally under way in the artificial intelligence sector. In response, investors, including those at the institutional level, are adopting the HALO strategy – focusing on 'heavy assets, low obsolescence' stocks to counter AI volatility.
Watchlist: Austal, META, PDD
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Investors beware, it won't take much to pierce the forming AI bubble

Technology stocks boosted the US market to new highs overnight, while also lifting some Asian markets yesterday. Staggering gains since April 1 mean some stocks are rising almost vertically. It's looking both unsustainable and extremely fragile. Any global economic shock or stumble in the AI rollout could see a correction.
Watchlist: Intel, Micron, Nufarm
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Coal stocks' big bull run may (not) be coming to an end

US-Iran peace optimism saw the oil price tumble and global sharemarkets rise overnight. With another solid performance for Australian shares expected today, it could be coal stocks leading gains once again. The sector is booming as demand intensifies, up more than 50% in 12 months. But for how much longer will its impressive bull run last?
Watchlist: Whitehaven Coal, Lenovo, Fisher & Paykel Health
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Space stocks are rocketing up ahead of the SpaceX IPO

Technology stocks are performing again, pushing US markets to highs, while those in the Asia-Pacific region flounder. And of all the tech sectors, it's space that's booming the loudest. As the giant Space X IPO nears, and dollars flow into the broader space economy, dedicated ETFs and stocks are recording record gains.
Watchlist: Betashares Space Industry ETF, Dell Technologies, Brambles
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Billions of dollars are now surging into the quantum computing sector

Sharemarkets continue to rise on suggestions of an Iran peace deal, as investors resume trading in risk sectors. The leading trade overnight was in quantum-computing stocks, as the US government launched an investing spree, targeting IBM and others. Analysts outline strong growth expectations for this volatile and fascinating sector.
Watchlist: Defiance Quantum ETF, Workday, ARM Holdings
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Moon-high hype or future-focused genius? SpaceX readies biggest ever IPO

Markets resurge toward highs as the US suggests peace with Iran is imminent. As the oil price dipped, travel and tech stocks rallied hard, especially airlines. The ultimate travel stock, SpaceX, is planning to list next month, and we dissect the arguments around its valuation and outline key points for potential investors.
Watchlist: Nvidia, Walmart, 4DMedical
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The big threat to the intense AI rally is the crashing bond market

Sharemarkets are attempting to find some stability as global bond markets crater over fears of rising inflation. The risk-off mood saw technology and growth stocks take a tumble overnight as fear that the oil price near US$110 will keep impacting economies and cause stagflation. If bond yields keep rising, the sharemarket rally will struggle to continue.
Watchlist: Technology One, Elders, Home Depot
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Federal budget 'losers': CBA leads big banks' share price fall

The US sharemarket again bounded to new highs, despite another bad inflation read overnight. Investors are particularly keen to see what comes out of the US-China summit under way, with key business leaders attending. But in Australia, big banks are reeling from the federal budget changes, with the Commonwealth Bank now in correction.
Watchlist: Commonwealth Bank, Xero, Alibaba
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Tax hike blow for Australian investors could change the market

As US markets draw back, scared by higher-than-expected inflation, the Australian market is reeling from a drastic change to taxation. We explore what's changing and how investors can respond.
Watchlist: Woodside, Under Armour, Cisco
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Pressure on Australian share prices intensifies with more rate rises ahead

US stocks bound to new highs again, with technology and some commodities leading the gains. Nvidia reached a high, now surpassing US$5.3 trillion in value. But the Australian sharemarket continues to flounder, and with even more rate rises to come in the months ahead, we can expect mounting pressure on local stocks.
Watchlist: LIfe360, Rigetti Computing, Circle
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Supply shock pushes aluminium into upcycle, eclipses other metals' gains

US markets surge to new highs, as technology companies' results lift investor spirits. Meanwhile, Australian stocks flatline, but not aluminium, with Aloca and Rio Tinto just two local names benefiting from a dramatic upswing in the metal's price. Lack of supply is re-energising the overlooked sector, with strong further gains expected.
Watchlist: South 32, Datadog, Constellation Energy
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The unsustainable US rally will falter if the Nasdaq-100 drops to this level

Strong earnings results are pumping the US market into highs, with artificial intelligence still the key trading theme. It's become a powerful rally over the past month, even though we're seeing no end to the global oil crisis and central banks look to increase rates. The signal this US investor euphoria may be over will be in the Nasdaq-100 index, so watch the key 26,000 level.
Watchlist: Uber, Codan
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Investor confidence plummets as Middle East conflict renews

As Iran strikes its neighbours and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, to US retaliation, the oil price jumped and shares tanked. With the Dow Jones Industrial down more than 1%, Australian shares are also falling this morning. Our strategist provides his update from Melbourne, as the Australian Shareholders' Association 2026 Investor Conference continues.
Watchlist: ON Semiconductor, AMD, Westpac Bank
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These four sectors are set for gain as AI spend heads to US$5t

The US market continues to reach highs, as Asian markets score losses. It is the huge, powerful American technology stocks driving significant gains there. And that is lead by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, as companies now show earnings strength. As estimates of AI spend increase to US$5 trillion over five years, we examine four critical supply sectors.
Watchlist: Roundhill Memory ETF, Palantir, National Australia Bank
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US market's dying leap makes April its best month in years

Markets return to highs, making April the best for sharemarket performance in many years. A stunning tech-led rally, kicked along by strong earnings from the likes of Google, belies dangerous conditions. As inflation appears set for inevitable rise and interest rates start to trend up, investors may not be reading the signs of peril in the bull run.
Watchlist: Sandisk, Apple, ANZ Bank
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Four AI giants just reported results: Google smashed them all

Sharemarkets are holding steady despite a huge spike in the oil price and Middle East tension muddling some other markets around the globe. But post-market US trading was dominated this morning by Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. There was one clear winner and some interesting results and themes that came out of it all.
Watchlist: Qantas Airways, Seagate Technology, Westgold Resources
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Decimated airline stocks now a 'high value, high risk' proposition

The heat is coming out of sharemarkets as the Middle East standoff continues. As oil rises above US$110, stocks are under pressure, especially airlines. Falling up to 40% this year, some analysts are saying they're a 'high risk, high value' proposition. We also preview what to watch out for when four of the 'magnificent seven' report tomorrow.
Watchlist: Qantas Airways, Seagate Technology, Westgold Resources
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Inflation fear may dampen US market boom as central bank meets

The US sharemarket hit yet another new high overnight. Technology stocks rally, just as the oil price shoots up and the Middle East standoff is without resolution. It may be this week's critical central bank meeting in the US that delivers a wake up call to investors that oil-induced inflation is a bigger worry than they think.
Watchlist: Ebay, BYD, Karoon Energy
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Supply crisis warning: semiconductor stocks may be at their peak

Software stocks slid heavily overnight, dragging down the broader US market, and bleeding into the Australian open. The standout US sector is semiconductors, ripping up an astonishing 30% in value so far in April. But the heat of that rise, and unquenchable demand for semiconductors and computer chips, is becoming a problem, with the bull run looking unsustainable.
Watchlist: Texas Instruments, IBM, Cochlear
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Exuberant US sharemarket is due for correction as it faces real risks

US shares rally to new highs, again, with a heedless exuberance that cannot last. It's the only major sharemarket that appears to have not factored in the real risks from rising global energy prices and undersupply. Expect a reckoning, as investors realise the impact, which may lead to underperformance compared with global markets.
Watchlist: Intel, Newmont, Sandfire Resources
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Five keys to find the winning IPOs of 2026

As the oil price rises and the Middle East conflict confuses investors, sharemarkets are falling. But strong earnings reports are proving a powerful bottom-up force. Another could be a string of IPOs this year, some valued in the trillions of dollars. From SpaceX to Canva, we'll see companies debut on the sharemarket across Australia, Hong Kong and the US. But how do you pick the winners from losers?
Watchlist: Tesla, Paladin Energy, Zip Co
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Silver set for long-term gains as demand from industry deepens

Markets are holding steady, despite Middle East chaos, with momentum fuelled by US earnings results. And strong demand is pushing commodities up, with silver in place to lead the 2026 precious metals' rally as supply cannot meet mounting demand from industry and investors.
Watchlist: iShares Silver Trust, Northrop Grumman, Lynas Rare Earths
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The next week will be critical to know if the US market rally will last

The US market is at a new high, soaring as sentiment builds around three key factors: an end to Middle East conflict (and lower oil price); a strong run of US company earnings; and belief that interest rates will not rise. This week, and especially next week, we will find out if the forces in play will support huge gains in the US.
Watchlist: Nvidia, GE Aerospace, Megaport
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Investors jubilant over US bank results, revealing strength of the economy

The US sharemarket surges to a new high as investors bet on resolution to Middle East conflict, a full resumption of the oil trade, and strong earnings results from companies. The big banks, reporting massive profits totalling about US$50 billion last quarter, support this optimistic outlook for stocks and the economy.
Watchlist: Charles Schwab, Netflix, Liontown
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Expect a strong uranium market upswing with demand expected to soar

The US market upswing continues with expectation of resolution to the Strait of Hormuz stand off and a resumption to trade. But the energy 'rethink' spurred by the oil crisis is sending uranium stocks skyward, and it could be a long term trend as supply cannot meet demand, and there's no immediate resolution to that imbalance.
Watchlist: Betashares Global Uranium ETF, DoorDash, Morgan Stanley
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Stocks now a 'value proposition' following sharemarket reset

The global sharemarket rebound is well under way, with the US nearing record highs. This follows the March selloff, which reset stock values to the 'best level' in years, say analysts, with even the price-to-earnings ratio of the 'magnificent seven' at its most attractive since 'liberation day' a year ago.
Watchlist: ASML, Coreweave, Evolution Mining
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US market regains losses as earnings results roll in to high expectations

The US market rallied back to its pre-war level overnight, as companies start to report their first-quarter results for the year. Expectations are very bullish, especially for the mighty technology sector, with global investment managers recommending to be 'overweight' in US stocks. But investors will keenly watch company expectations for the rest of 2026.
Watchlist: BlackRock, Dell Technologies, A2 Milk
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Rate shock: brutal sea change coming for unprepared markets

Last week's powerful share market rally is not likely to repeat this week, with the Australian market opening down as renewed Middle East disruption hits investor nerves. This continues to fuel inflation, with central bank's pivoting to hold or raise interest rates. Problem is, share markets are largely unprepared for the impact of this.
Watchlist: Lam Research, Goldman Sachs, Guzman y Gomez
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Sectors to gain (or lose) as AI agents take over the business world

World markets continue to recover from their trouncing during the Iran war, with the AI sector driving that uptick. That means investors are again beating up software stocks, a sector that fell hard overnight, but may possibly be a big winner as companies rush to employ AI agents – a powerful, unstoppable trend that will reshape business.
Watchlist: Amazon, Atlassian, WiseTech Global
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As markets rally, April may be Australia's best month this year

Global sharemarkets rallied powerfully in the past 24 hours, with some Asian and Europen indices up more than 5%. Technology stocks are leading the broad surge, including in Australia, where April is a proven outperformer compared to other months. With momentum building, it could be the best month of 2026 for gains.
Watchlist: Teradyne, Levi Strauss, DroneShield
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Soaring metals signal structural repricing with miners to benefit

US stocks rallied from session lows, with the Australian market soaring at its open on news of a US-Iran ceasefire as the oil price drops. It is metals stocks gaining the most ground over the past week, with aluminium, gold and copper surging in what appears to be a structural shift in the market, with new higher prices set to stay.
Watchlist: Emerald Resources, Delta Air Lines, Intel
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What to expect in markets if the Iran war ends

A risk-on rally swept US markets overnight, driving the Nasdaq up nearly 4%. And the Australian market is following this morning. This is down to signals of peace in the Iran war... so what should investors expect if we do see a clear end to the war, and which sectors will rise or fall as hostilities cease?
Watchlist: Schawb Dividend ETF, LyondellBasell, South32
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The global bond market is sounding a clear 'selldown' alarm to investors

Sharemarkets keep falling, driven by technology and other growth sectors. It's the commodities and value stocks that are holding up, such as coal and chemicals. But the broad bass alarm of bonds is sounding through markets, with a huge spike in yields indicating higher inflation, higher rates and a continuing drop in the value of equities.
Watchlist: Schawb Dividend ETF, LyondellBasell, South32
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Don't rush into falling US tech stocks, with momentum clearly downward

A sweeping drop in sharemarkets is expected this week, following last week's rout (which did not include Australia). With oil rising and fear peaking it is big US technology stocks feeling the pain, falling up to 26% year to date, with more likely ahead as momentum accelerates.
Watchlist: Microsoft, Estee Lauder, Liontown
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Drone stocks set for growth as global militaries pivot their focus

US markets were swept by negativity overnight as the oil price spiked and the Iran war looked set to continue. Defence stocks are one bright sector, with an argument forming that drone stocks are still undervalued, and stand to benefit as global militaries rush to make AI-powered drones central to their plans.
Watchlist: Swarmer, Meta, 4D Medical
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Inflation will surge toward 5%, and sharemarkets' reaction will be severe

Markets continue to climb on (somewhat unconvincing) talk of Iran conflict resolution. Analysts are more convinced that inflation will spike above 4% in the US and 5% in Australia in coming months. Especially the US market is not ready for this, so when it does hit the reaction is likely to be severe.
Watchlist: ARM, Meituan, G8 Education
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The slide in the huge US private credit sector may end in a global crisis

US markets slid over uncertainty of resolution to the Iran war, with tech stocks hit hard overnight. But one of the worst performing sectors this year is private credit, with stocks falling around 30% as investors panic over their exposure to the crumbling software sector. They're demanding their money back and the lenders are saying no.
Watchlist: Ares Management, Coinbase, Pop Mart
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