the daily moo

Gold just staged its biggest breakout in months, surging past $4,250 and clearing $4,300 on futures. Here's why Wall Street keeps getting gold wrong, and what central bank buying, ballooning debt, and year-end targets mean for your portfolio.
Today's Watchlist: Pantoro Gold, Datadog, Atlassian
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The global financial markets are currently experiencing an exceptionally bullish phase characterised by elevated volatility and major indices hitting historic highs. This environment of "irrational exuberance" is primarily driven by strong micro-level corporate earnings, with investors frequently overlooking macroeconomic risks in favor of positive growth narratives.
Today's Watchlist: Applovin, ConocoPhillips, Block
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After quadrupling earlier this year, memory sector valuations have shed one trillion dollars, raising critical questions about whether compressed P/E ratios reflect healthy profit-taking or genuine market doubt around forward earnings projections.
Today's Watchlist: Sandisk, AMD, 4D Medical
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A strong rally has gripped US markets, as US-Iran conflict fears ease and impressive results from US companies keep coming. But will that include SpaceX? It's share price has plummeted since its listing, and pressure is intensifying. It's earnings report tomorrow will be crucial to its future and investor confidence.
Today's Watchlist: NASA ETF, Caterpillar, Guzman Y Gomez
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The crypto sector is experiencing a clear divergence based on business model adaptability. Mining companies have successfully leveraged their infrastructure for AI computing, delivering strong year-to-date performance, while companies with direct Bitcoin exposure are navigating the asset's 27% decline through strategic diversification.
Today's Watchlist: Circle, Palantir, WiseTech
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A tech-led Wall Street rally driven by strong semiconductor gains and cloud earnings from Microsoft and Amazon, with a clear divergence emerging across the sector as investors reward companies demonstrating immediate AI monetisation while penalising those with longer paths to return on investment.
Today's Watchlist: Amazon, Live Nation, Capstone Copper
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Microsoft and Meta both reported earnings this week, but Wall Street's reaction couldn't have been more different. Microsoft jumped 8% after-hours while Meta dropped 9%, revealing exactly what investors now demand from Big Tech's AI bet
Today's Watchlist: Fortinet, Starbucks, Rio Tinto
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Q2 earnings season is well underway and Wall Street is focused on where the AI capital is actually being deployed. With tech giants committing historic levels of capex to AI infrastructure, the question becomes which companies are positioned to capture that spending and which valuations have gotten ahead of themselves.
Today's Watchlist: SK Hynix, Unilever, DroneShield
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Judging whether to buy a stock (such as Tesla) after a significant drop, involves separating emotional reactions from figuring out what's going on. These are the five questions to answer: 1. Has it's growth story changed? 2. Is it actually cheaper? 3. Why did it fall? 4. What is it's support level? 5. What will make it go up? We use Tesla's recent fall to illustrate this process.
Today's Watchlist: Seagate, Corning, Capricorn Metals
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This week marks the biggest week of the US earnings season, with over a third of major companies reporting, and it's shaping up as the ultimate stress test for the AI trade. Results will come from every layer of the AI supply chain, from data centre infrastructure and semiconductor equipment makers to chip designers and hyperscalers, revealing whether the enormous capital expenditure pouring into AI is delivering real returns.
Watchlist: Dell, Coca-Cola, Paladin
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Defence stocks are surging as the sector faces what analysts are calling the strongest macro environment in a generation. With ongoing conflict in the Middle East, NATO nations ramping up military spending, and governments around the world committing to long-term defence budgets, major contractors are reporting strong earnings beats and record order backlogs.
Watchlist: Lockheed Martin, NextEra Energy, Newmont
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Investors lose patience as cash warning flashes for big tech Markets are holding steady in the face of a rapidly rising oil price and dynamic results from major US companies. It's those results that are taking more investor attention than anything else with the key question of whether the massive spend on AI infrastructure is worth it. And at first blush, with fresh results from Alphabet and Tesla, and answer seems to be 'maybe not'.
Watchlist: Intel, SMIC, Sandfire Resources
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The ASX 200 barely moved this week, but beneath that flat headline, a dramatic rotation is underway, with investors piling into into oil and gas names as Middle East tensions near the Strait of Hormuz keep crude prices elevated.
Watchlist: Woodside, CBA, Tesla
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The focus this week is the AI trade, where enormous capital expenditure commitments are now being tested against actual revenue growth and free cash flow generation. With several major results due in coming days, investors are looking for evidence that the spending cycle is producing returns, and the stakes for richly valued, heavily indebted names are particularly high.
Watchlist: Alphabet, GM, Yancoal
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Capital is rotating out of high-valuation growth stocks into attractively priced, earnings-rich value plays. Australian value stocks have outperformed growth for the first time in a year, driven by rising interest rates and shifting fiscal policy, signaling a potential inflection point.
Watchlist: Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (VHY), Marvell, Palo Alto Networks
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Capital is rotating out of high-valuation tech and semiconductors into AI-driven healthcare technology, as medical AI experiences explosive growth across clinical diagnostics, robotic surgery, and physician automation, positioning healthcare not just as a traditional defensive play but as the next frontier of exponential growth.
Watchlist: Abbott, Netflix, BHP
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Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI has spotlighted what many believe will define the next chapter of the AI race: physical, consumer-facing hardware and the end-to-end integration of chips, software, and devices. The market remains caught between optimism and uncertainty about who will ultimately dominate this once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Watchlist: Apple, BlackRock, Zip
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US markets rallied on a softer-than-expected CPI print, while Australia's ASX 200 finished exactly flat, continuing to underperform as domestic tax changes weigh on bank stocks and mortgage books. Major overnight moves in tech, a dramatic earnings season moment for IBM, and a local winemaker's strategic pivot back to premium are also covered.
Watchlist: Bank of America, IBM, Treasury Wines
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The US tech sector fell hard overnight as US-Iran conflict escalated and talk of blockade and tolls hit investor confidence. We unpack what can be expected as the oil price and bond yields spike in response.
Watchlist: Oracle, Goldman Sachs, Tamboran Resources
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It was the powerful artificial intelligence trade leading global markets higher last week. There were spectacular gains in some market-leading stocks. And that expectation and hope will now be realised (or not) as US companies report their earnings and forecasts. So let's find out if the billions of dollars sunk into building out AI infrastructure is actually worth it.
Watchlist: JP Morgan, SK Hynix, Electro Optic Systems
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Technology stocks are climbing globally, but so far into July, it's Hong Kong that is outperforming, as significant capital inflow lifts the technology index there and AI-aligned stocks. It's been a dramatic uptick for a key global technology market. And it looks like structural factors are in place to support continued growth as China doubles-down on a self-sufficient AI sector.
Watchlist: SMIC, Take Two, Fletcher Building
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Markets flipped from yesterday's tech sector downturn as investors rushed back to AI. Few sectors are running as hot as cyber security, in a bull run since Anthropic launched its Mythos model that freaked out corporations and governments alike, and set off a stampede into AI security. Some stocks have doubled in three months, as the whole sector is expected to do by 2030.
Watchlist: Fortinet, Alibaba, Minerals 260
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Healthcare is one sector benefiting as investors exit highly valued technology stocks. Daily swings in leading stocks such as Intel indicate the market's current intense volatility. And that applies to the most bullish sectors, such as robotics, where advancements (and need) are set to create a huge market in the years ahead.
Watchlist: Intuitive Surgical, Levi Strauss, CSL
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It's not just technology stocks rallying, we're also saw an uptick in commodities, including gold, with the price now above US$4150. But will it rally higher or fall further? Global investment banks maintain their ambitious target for the yellow metal by year end. But there's reason for caution as inflation and interest rate expectations change.
Watchlist: Global X Physical Gold Structured ETF, Rocket Lab, Tesla
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As a big tech selloff takes hold in global markets, it's not the chips or hyperscalers winning investor interest, it's the industries that make them function. Those machinery and infrastructure stocks are in demand as the AI build out continues to heighten. We outline four critical sectors to watch.
Watchlist: iShares Semiconductor ETF, Teradyne, Nextdc
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US semiconductor stocks led a downswing in the market, but analysts are steadfastly bullish on where the market's premier benchmark, the S&P 500, is headed in the months ahead, and that is up. Gains in the first half of 2026 are expected to match gains in the second half – so it could be double (or nothing) for the year.
Watchlist: Liontown, Caterpillar, Electro Optic Systems
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A rally in US artificial intelligence stocks and sectors ended the financial year on theme! It was the clear driver of the US market for the past 12 months, driving astounding gains across all indices. But also integral in Australia on the commodities front. We unpack the year that was, and give a quick take on the set up for 2026-27.
Watchlist: Liontown, Caterpillar, Electro Optic Systems
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With a US technology stock rally lifting markets overnight, it looks like we're about to end the 2025-26 financial year on a positive note. But when we look at what's likely to drive US markets in the new year, there's a few traps to watch out for, from severe market bottlenecks to November's mid-term elections.
Watchlist: Woodside Energy, ON Semiconductor, AbbVie 
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Last week we saw an obvious rotation from big US technology stocks tied to AI, into 'safer' sectors such as healthcare. We can expect volatility this week as end of financial year repositioning begins. And you should take time to rethink your strategy, especially as we've only got one year to go before the capital gains tax discount is gone.
Watchlist: Woodside Energy, ON Semiconductor, AbbVie 
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We saw some huge technology stock price rises and falls overnight in a split US market performance. And it seems there's clearer market distinction between winners and underperformers in the AI race, as massive AI hyperscaler spending starts to impact their businesses and concern investors.
Watchlist: Apple, Coinbase, Judo Capital
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The pullback in big US technology stocks continued overnight, as it did with commodities, leading to a soft start in Australia. Almost all the 'magnificent seven' fell, but that should perhaps not worry investors so much, with that grouping now labelled 'obsolete'. Resurgent sectors and new trends are erasing the value of this old-school thinking.
Watchlist: Micron Technology, SMIC, American Airlines
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Investors sold out of the big US technology stocks, fretting about possible higher interest rates and that valuations may just be too high. Key metals, including copper and silver, were caught up in the negativity. The decline began in Asia-Pacific region markets yesterday, where valuations are so much lower that analysts are pointing to clear room for strong growth ahead.
Watchlist: MiniMax, WiseTech, Carnival
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As big US technology stocks, from SpaceX to Alphabet, fell hard overnight, the broader market actually lifted higher. As hope of US-Iran peace talks rise, Australian shares may also today. But that may not include one of the market's most important engines, the big banks, which are falling steadily since the federal budget was handed down.
Watchlist: National Australia Bank, Alphabet, Getty Images
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Big technology stocks pushed the US sharemarket higher last week, while Australia only edged up as commodity prices weighed on local stocks. A key focus this week will be memory chip leader Micron Technology, to report Wednesday after market, which could trigger a whole new leg up for this dynamic fast-growing sector.
Watchlist: Micron, Web Travel, Beach Energy
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A surge in the leading US technology stocks lifted the market there, but lagging commodity prices are weighing on the Australian sharemarket today. It proves the point that when it comes to the Australian miners, it really pays to be specific and get to know the strength of demand for the metals they're bringing to market. It will determine if their big gains this year will continue.
Watchlist: BHP, Accenture, Intel
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The US sharemarket slid broadly overnight as investors retreated, spooked by clear indication the central bank is leaning toward rate increases – an about turn from previous rate cuts. If it follows through, which commentators expect, we can expect a strong effect on the sharemarket, with secure, defensive stocks in favou
Watchlist: Broadcom, Moderna, Karoon Energy
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Semiconductor stocks dove significantly overnight, spooked by an outlook from Broadcom, forcing the Nasdaq-100 index down by nearly 2%. It reveals investors' lack of confidence in the huge rally in AI stocks amid a still messy geopolitical scene. Even if a US-Iran deal is signed this Friday the after shocks of the oil supply crisis will continue to impact investors for months.
Watchlist: The Mosaic, Intel, IperionX
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A big rally in the US sharemarket, followed even stronger rallies in some Asia-Pacific region markets yesterday. Technology stocks recorded astounding gains as investors fully resumed their focus on artificial intelligence. But global energy infrastructure remains severely damaged, limiting how far the oil price can drop, and that will keep inflation high.
Watchlist: United Airlines, SpaceX, LendLease
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A powerful rally in the US sharemarket overnight is channelling into gains for the Australian market this morning. But the US gains, spearheaded by repeated double-digit leaps in trillion-dollar technology stocks, reveals just how febrile, uncertain and touchy the US market really is right now.
Watchlist: SanDisk, Tema Space Innovators ETF, Alcoa
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US shares dived overnight as Middle East military activity resumed and inflation spiked to a three-year high. Rising prices are mostly driven by rapidly increasing energy costs – a side effect of the US-Iran war. This huge increase is only just beginning to bite into the US sharemarket and consumers. And it looks set to have a devastating effect ahead.
Watchlist: Oracle, Adobe, Wesfarmers
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Technology stocks and metal prices dipped overnight, as investors pause amid renewed Middle East hostilities. But few sectors are falling as hard and fast as cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin losing half its value since its high late last year. Investors are desperate to pile into AI, and crypto is a casualty as they liquidate their holdings.
Watchlist: Strategy, Cracker Barrel, Deep Yellow
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While the US technology sector rebounded over night, lifting the overall market, the price of gold did not. It is now well below US$4400 an ounce – a critical support level – with signs indicating further decline ahead is likely. In unison, we've seen significant drops in gold stocks across North America and the Asia-Pacific region.
Watchlist: Chow Tai Fook, Planet Labs, Megaport
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Markets are pulling back from escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, as the price of oil rises. But they usually don't fall far, with the euphoric, persistent US rally based on the enormous strength of companies' earnings growth, as revealed in the past two monthS. But in a market 'priced to perfection' how much growth is left?
Watchlist: CrowdStrike, Victoria's Secret, Paladin Energy
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Technology stocks (not software) again boosted the US market higher, with Marvell and Hewlett Packard recording astounding gains. But they may pale compared with the three juggernauts about to list. So are SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI really worth you money? Their valuations are very high, and they're not even profitable yet.
Watchlist: Destiny Tech 100, Broadcom, Marvell
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The US sharemarket continues to rally higher, and Asian markets outperform, led by the powerful artificial intelligence sector. But not Australia, which is decoupling from the global scene as it heads south. Higher rates and a weakening economy are weighing on local shares and will continue to. So how do you invest in a falling market?
Watchlist: Pro Medicus, Palo Alto Networks, Blackberry
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The US market surged to highs again last week as technology stocks, those with decades of history, experienced a powerful surge. To name just two, Lenovo and Dell both jumped more than 60% last week alone. It's all about artificial intelligence, with these businesses finding essential roles in the boom. All the while, the unresolved Middle East standoff is being ignored.
Watchlist: Hewlett Packard, Virgin Galactic, Siteminder
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US sharemarkets rallied to highs, still believing an end to the US-Iran conflict is nigh. And that was supported by staggering gains in companies reporting results, such as Snowflake. But the US economy is telling a different story, as growth slows sharply and inflation refuses to drop, stagflationary forces are intensifying and will bring volatility.
Watchlist: Snowflake, Dell, Genesis Minerals
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As markets hold steady, awaiting news from the Middle East, there's increasing worry about the rampant rally under way in the artificial intelligence sector. In response, investors, including those at the institutional level, are adopting the HALO strategy – focusing on 'heavy assets, low obsolescence' stocks to counter AI volatility.
Watchlist: Austal, META, PDD
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Technology stocks boosted the US market to new highs overnight, while also lifting some Asian markets yesterday. Staggering gains since April 1 mean some stocks are rising almost vertically. It's looking both unsustainable and extremely fragile. Any global economic shock or stumble in the AI rollout could see a correction.
Watchlist: Intel, Micron, Nufarm
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US-Iran peace optimism saw the oil price tumble and global sharemarkets rise overnight. With another solid performance for Australian shares expected today, it could be coal stocks leading gains once again. The sector is booming as demand intensifies, up more than 50% in 12 months. But for how much longer will its impressive bull run last?
Watchlist: Whitehaven Coal, Lenovo, Fisher & Paykel Health
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